The decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has clear outlines for resolving bets on the 2024 US Presidential Election within the occasion of contested outcomes.
The platform’s market, specializing in whether or not Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will win the presidency, will likely be resolved based mostly on calls from three main information organizations: the Related Press, Fox Information, and NBC.
If all three don’t unanimously declare the identical candidate because the winner by the inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, the market will settle in keeping with who’s formally inaugurated as President.
This mechanism addresses potential situations the place election outcomes are disputed or delayed. Merchants’ positions will stay unsettled till a definitive result’s established. Nonetheless, as Bitget reported, the governance token for Polymarket’s UMA oracle system has a market cap of simply $244 million, doubtlessly making markets susceptible given the $2.3 billion in quantity the election market has acquired.
Are Polymarket manipulation considerations legitimate?
Additional, considerations have emerged concerning the potential ‘manipulation’ of betting odds on the platform. A restricted variety of accounts have positioned vital wagers favoring Trump. Newsweek highlighted this, elevating questions on how substantial bets would possibly affect public notion and the integrity of the market throughout a contested election.
Nonetheless, Jim Bianco has additionally pointed to massive bets in favor of Harris over current days, which momentarily moved the market by as much as 4%.
Moreover, CryptoSlate has reported on the persistent betting in favor of Trump from a handful of Polymarket whales over the previous few weeks. The evaluation assessed that lower than $6 million can be required to maneuver the market by massive percentages as a consequence of low order guide liquidity.
In the end, Polymarket is a free and open market, and claims of ‘manipulation’ are complicated provided that the principles upon which the market is constructed don’t look like abused.
Whether or not excessive conviction or coordinated betting, the chances of the following US President on Polymarket are merely based mostly on the character of buying and selling on the platform. It’s a far stretch to assert ‘manipulation’ in an open market the place no technical mechanisms are exploited to change the chances.
Market decision amid contested elections
Because the election approaches, Polymarket’s reliance on media retailers for market decision does immediate discussions about objectivity and potential biases. Media organizations could differ of their projections, particularly in tight races, resulting in extended uncertainty for merchants. As The New York Instances famous, this might influence the platform’s skill to offer well timed resolutions.
In the end, the ultimate step within the decision depends on “who’s inaugurated.” If listed media retailers don’t agree by inauguration day, the market winner is set by who in the end takes up the White Home.
Ought to the dispute over the election proceed by the courts, stopping a President from being inaugurated by Jan. 20, the Polymarket end result could possibly be delayed additional.
Curiously, the twentieth Modification to the US Structure gives a framework for what occurs if there isn’t any president-elect by Inauguration Day. If the president-elect fails to qualify, the vice president-elect acts as President till a brand new president is certified. If neither is certified, Congress has the authority to find out the following steps, with the Speaker of the Home being subsequent in line in keeping with the presidential line of succession
If a contested election results in Speaker of the Home Mike Johnson taking workplace, there could possibly be many disgruntled Polymarket merchants.
Whereas that is merely a hypothetical situation, given the historical past of the 2020 election, the probabilities of a contested lead to 2024 have elevated. Though it’s unlikely neither candidate will likely be elected on inauguration day, there’s at present no prediction marketplace for betting on whether or not the election will likely be contested.