Fast Take
Samson Mow just lately stirred dialogue on X by declaring that “$58k is the brand new $9k” for Bitcoin. Intrigued by this daring assertion, we determined to place Mow’s principle to the check by analyzing Bitcoin’s buying and selling patterns, particularly in gentle of its historic worth habits.
Since reaching its all-time excessive of roughly $73,000 in March, Bitcoin hasn’t seen a lot worth volatility, dipping to a low of round $49,000 on Aug. 5. Coincidentally, this was roughly the identical worth as when the Bitcoin ETF launched in January.
Regardless of this volatility, Bitcoin has predominantly traded throughout the $60,000 vary, sometimes spiking to $70,000 earlier than retreating. This sample attracts parallels to the 2020 cycle, when Bitcoin spent a protracted interval of round $9,000 from June 2019 to September 2020. Even in the course of the COVID-19 crash, when Bitcoin briefly plummeted to $4,000, it shortly returned to the $9,000 vary.
We rigorously analyzed these traits utilizing roughly a 12% worth vary. This strategy permits for a good comparability throughout completely different worth ranges by sustaining a constant share vary fairly than a hard and fast greenback quantity.
Our findings revealed that Bitcoin spent 183 days within the vary of $8,860 to $9,968 and 160 days between $7,875 and $8,859. At the moment, Bitcoin has spent 133 days buying and selling between $58,374 and $65,671.
With 50 days till Oct. 9, the beginning of the fourth quarter — a historically bullish interval for Bitcoin — market observers are eager to see if historical past will repeat itself and validate Mow’s assertion.
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