Donald Trump has retaken a lead over Kamala Harris on the crypto prediction market Polymarket, with odds now standing at 52% for Trump in comparison with 47% for Harris. Harris has misplaced what was a 10-point lead on Trump earlier than this week’s DNC.
This shift comes amid a notable enhance within the probability of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. endorsing Trump, as his possibilities of doing so this month went from 14% to 46% following feedback made by his operating mate Nicole Shanahan on the Influence Principle podcast. The podcast revealed concerns of dropping out to endorse Trump, which considerably influenced the prediction market’s notion.
The state of affairs is additional sophisticated by experiences that RFK Jr. was exploring potential roles inside a Harris administration simply final week.
Regardless of this growth on Polymarket, different prediction platforms and polls nonetheless present Harris within the lead. On PredictIt, Harris maintains a bonus, and globally, odds have shortened for Trump, although Harris stays barely forward, in keeping with OddsChecker. The divergence between Polymarket and different markets highlights the distinctive forces inside crypto-native platforms, the place Trump’s pro-crypto stance could resonate extra with buyers.
Trump’s odds on Polymarket have fluctuated from 72% to 47% earlier than reaching the present 52%. This enhance coincided with Harris’s odds dropping from 54% to 49%. A scarcity of point out of both Bitcoin or crypto within the Democrat coverage launched throughout the DNC might be an element within the Polymarket swings.
General, whereas Trump’s lead on Polymarket marks a major growth, the broader prediction market panorama nonetheless marginally favors Harris, stressing the multifaceted nature of political forecasting within the context of the 2024 US presidential election.
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