A broadly adopted crypto analyst is warning that Bitcoin (BTC) may repeat historical past and endure a market correction earlier than the top of the 12 months.
Pseudonymous dealer Rekt Capital tells his 352,800 followers on the social media platform X that Bitcoin may decline to $20,000 this 12 months if BTC repeats a sample seen each in 2015 and 2019, two different pre-halving years.
“BTC: 2015, 2019 and perhaps even 2023? Bitcoin has a historical past of revisiting the macro increased low [price] (blue circle) in its pre-halving interval.”
He says one other indication that Bitcoin may retest the $20,000 stage is that there’s a hole created by trades on the Chicago Mercantile Alternate (CME) in that vary.
“If Bitcoin continues to type decrease [price] highs may BTC fill the CME hole at ~$20,000 later this 12 months or early 2024?
In that case, Bitcoin may lastly revisit its macro increased low on this cycle (blue circle).”
The dealer additionally says one other indicator Bitcoin could dip is that it has dropped beneath the 50-week exponential shifting common (EMA).
“The final time BTC rejected from the 50-week EMA (purple) BTC retraced -20%.
If historical past repeats and BTC had been to reject -20% from right here, value would drop into the ~$21,000 space (inexperienced). That is the place the each day CME hole is (orange).”
The dealer says his prediction of a Bitcoin dip might be invalidated if BTC can get away previous a key value stage within the close to time period.
“It’s actually easy. If BTC is ready to break the black Decrease Excessive resistance then it’ll have probability of correctly difficult for a ~$31,000 breakout.
However till then there’s all the time scope for extra draw back.”
In keeping with the dealer, Bitcoin will seemingly not revisit the $31,000 stage till after the subsequent halving occasion, when miner rewards are reduce in half, which is anticipated to happen in April 2024. He additionally predicts a parabolic rally after subsequent 12 months’s halving occasion that may ship BTC over $65,000.
“If ~$31,000 was the Prime for 2023 then the subsequent time we see these costs will likely be months from now, simply after the halving (pink field).
Solely distinction between at times? On this pre-halving interval, BTC may nonetheless retrace from right here.
However after the halving, BTC would get away a lot increased from present costs.”
Bitcoin is buying and selling for $26,646 at time of writing, down 1.3% within the final 24 hours.
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