If the US Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) finally ends up approving a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) anytime within the coming days or even weeks, one skilled is assured BTC costs will explode greater than 6x to $185,000.
As of August 30, BTC is altering fingers beneath $30,000 however stays agency.
Bitcoin To $185,000?
In a latest CNBC interview, Tom Lee, who repeatedly feedback on Bitcoin costs, mentioned a spot ETF will mop up all day by day provide of the world’s most precious cryptocurrency, creating an “imbalance” that can inevitably drive costs larger. Based mostly on this, demand will considerably outstrip provide, driving costs to $185,000 or larger.
Bitcoin stays the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap regardless of the sharp contraction all through the previous 20 months.
At peaks, BTC surged to over $69,000 just for sentiment to shift in 2022, triggering a sell-off that noticed costs declined greater than half, bottoming up from beneath $16,000 in November 2022.
Whereas costs have since recovered, surging over 50% from November 2022 lows to peaking at over $31,000 in late July 2023, the crypto and Bitcoin communities have their eyes on the SEC.
The stringent regulator has been adamant, dismissing earlier purposes for a posh ETF spinoff immediately monitoring Bitcoin costs. Whereas the SEC has permitted a Bitcoin Futures ETF that tracks an index aggregating costs from a number of regulated exchanges, the nascent business calls for an spot BTC ETF.
SEC Possible To Approve Spot ETF?
Following August 29’s court docket ruling that supported Grayscale’s assertion that sturdy measures are in place for his or her Bitcoin spot ETF to be free from market manipulation, the group has been ecstatic. The ruling was a loss for the SEC, however the court docket didn’t point out or information the regulator in approving a Bitcoin ETF.
Nonetheless, following the sharp growth of Bitcoin costs from round $25,800 to as excessive as $28,000, there’s a part of optimists who consider the SEC has little wiggling area and don’t have any possibility however to greenlight a Bitcoin ETF within the coming weeks if not months.
On August 30, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, two of Bloomberg’s senior ETF analysts, elevated their odds of the SEC approving a spot ETF in 2023 to 75% (up from 65%). If it doesn’t get permitted this 12 months, they estimate that the regulator will doubtless permit entities to create this product subsequent 12 months since their likelihood is 95%.
Their confidence stems from the truth that the “unanimity and decisiveness” of the latest court docket ruling within the SEC versus Grayscale case was “past expectations and leaves SEC with “little or no wiggle room.” Furthermore, of their evaluation, the SEC has suffered a “PR” loss for the reason that ruling was broadly lined.
Characteristic picture from Canva, chart from TradingView