Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin (BTC) might fall additional even after correcting by over 15% from its 2023 excessive reached final month.
Cowen tells his 785,000 YouTube subscribers that the present crypto downturn is according to a sample that happens each 4 years.
“The thought behind the secondary scare in crypto comes from the truth that the S&P 500 [stock index] tends to get a correction in August or September of its [US] pre-election yr.
So should you had been to take a look at 2023, you possibly can see that the S&P is in truth getting this correction that we talked about.”
The S&P 500 is down a little bit over 5% for the reason that begin of August.
In keeping with the extensively adopted crypto strategist, Bitcoin has plummeted by between 39% and 83% throughout earlier “secondary scares.”
“In 2019, as soon as the secondary scare bought underway, as soon as we bought beneath the 20-week transferring common proper or the weekly candle that led us beneath it, Bitcoin dropped one other 61%…
This one 2015… it was a few 40% or 39% drop.
After which in 2011… you had an 82.5% drop earlier than we really lastly bottomed out within the secondary scare…
In all three instances within the pre-halving yr, the S&P dropped in Q3 of the pre-election yr… After which Bitcoin entered right into a downtrend for some time.
And we’ve got three examples: one the place we went down about 80%, one the place we went down about 40% and yet another we went down about 60%.”
On how low Bitcoin might fall going by historic precedent, Cowen outlines three eventualities.
“If it’s a 40% drop [similar to 2015]… 40% drop places Bitcoin at $17,500, okay. That may be the bottom. This might principally correspond to this 2015 transfer. That may put Bitcoin at $17,500.
A 61% drop, which is what we skilled in 2019, would put it at round $11,400.
An 80% drop would put it a lot decrease, which I’ll say I don’t suppose it’s going to go almost that low.”
Bitcoin is buying and selling at $26,423 at time of writing.
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