Treasury Secretary Howard Lutnick insists the U.S. financial system is on strong footing regardless of issues from Wall Avenue {that a} recession is within the playing cards.
“Completely not,” he mentioned on a Sunday version of Meet the Press when requested if People ought to put together for a downturn.
“There’s going to be no recession in America,” he continued. “It is like the identical individuals who thought Donald Trump wasn’t a winner a yr in the past. Donald Trump is a winner. He will win for the American folks.”
A recession is 2 consecutive quarters of financial contraction, brought on by imbalances from exterior or inner components, or mixture of each.
“President is on it and he’s highly effective on it, and he isn’t going to take his foot off the fuel.” These tariffs are a part of a drug warfare. Canada and Mexico should shut down the move of fentanyl throughout our border and China should cease subsidizing the manufacturing. The Trump Administration… pic.twitter.com/nY9x7bx7Wu
— Howard Lutnick (@howardlutnick) March 9, 2025
This argument contradicts feedback made by the President earlier, who did not rule out a recession, calling it a part of a transition.
Lutnick argued that Trump’s tariff technique will power different international locations to decrease their commerce limitations, unleashing American progress and driving $1.3 trillion in new funding.
“We’re going to unleash America out to the world,” he mentioned in response to warnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs a few tariff-induced recession. “You’re going to see over the following two years the best set of progress coming from America.”
Whereas Lutnick acknowledged that tariffs might make overseas items dearer, he framed them as a part of a broader effort to chop the deficit and decrease borrowing prices.
“Once you stability the funds… you drive rates of interest down 150 foundation factors. Mortgages come smashing down. The price of your property will come smashing down,” he mentioned.
Crypto merchants, nonetheless, do not appear to have the identical optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) fell 7% on Sunday, dropping to $80,000 and nearing its 2025 low of $78,000.
Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP (XRP) adopted, whereas meme cash like Dogecoin (DOGE) and Cardano (ADA) tumbled practically 12%.
On Polymarket, bettors are more and more bracing for a slowdown, though the probabilities of one occurring stay slim.
A contract asking in regards to the chance of a U.S. recession in 2025 has seen the Sure odds leap to 41%, a 16% improve in current weeks.
In the meantime, the most recent U.S. jobs report confirmed 151,000 jobs added in February, CoinDesk just lately reported, roughly in step with expectations, though the unemployment charge ticked as much as 4.1% and January’s job positive factors have been revised decrease.
Nevertheless, layoffs within the public sector as a part of the White Home’s DOGE efforts could push these numbers up subsequent quarter.
Whereas labor market resilience has stored recession calls at bay, indicators of slowing progress are rising, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow mannequin forecasting a unfavorable 2.8% Q1 progress charge.
Nevertheless, one other contract provides simply 3% likelihood of a recession occurring earlier than Might. The primary quarter ends March 31.