Market Outlook #260 (twenty first March 2024)
Howdy and welcome to the 260th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s put up, I might be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Fantom, Illuvium and LooksRare, a few which had been reader requests. It’s a barely shorter put up this week specializing in extra of the actions of the majors – again to usually scheduled programming from Monday.
As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of electronic mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $65,405
Market Cap: $1.285trn
Ideas: Nicely, what just a few days it has been…
If we start by wanting on the weekly for BTC/USD, we will see that value closed final week proper beneath the earlier all-time excessive at $68.4k, having depraved into contemporary highs at $73.7k earlier than rejecting. Value has since additionally rejected off that weekly open and offered off in direction of $59.2k, bouncing above it this week and now consolidating proper round prior resistance turned help at $64.9k, which is a big degree to carry: this was the April 2021 excessive and holding above it right here would look very very like the breakout, rejection and retest from the earlier cycle’s all-time excessive break. Additional, holding right here confirms that the present parabola stays intact, main to cost discovery in April and Could till we see the parabola break sooner or later. On this timeframe, there actually isn’t lots to be involved with simply but. Now we have a daily pull-back from a very powerful degree on the chart after an enormous run-up that constructed up lots of leverage available in the market. This has just about been eviscerated this previous couple of weeks and it’s now a case of holding these greater timeframe help ranges and persevering with greater, in my opinion. Now, if we had been to lose the $59k degree and shut the weekly beneath it, that will begin to look extra regarding – in actual fact, I’d count on that to result in a parabola break shortly after and thus possible a for much longer interval of consolidation and chop earlier than continuation greater. One factor so as to add right here can also be that there’s nothing but indicative of exhaustion on this timeframe: spot quantity is rising and momentum indicators are making higher-highs.
If we drop into the each day, I’ve marked out three eventualities I’m contemplating right here. The primary is essentially the most bullish, which is {that a} higher-low was marked out this week at $60.7k, above the $59.2k swing-low, with that bullish engulfing resulting in the formation of a higher-low within the subsequent few days above $61k, after which a breakout and reclaim of $69k, turning that into help earlier than value discovery. The second situation is that regardless of the bullish engulfing, value at the moment has rejected on the prior all-time highs and failed to make use of that momentum to interrupt above $68.9k, rejecting and turning decrease. This might mark out a lower-high inside this construction and result in a flush of this week’s low, inflicting a small liquidation cascade by means of $59.2k into $58k earlier than a pointy reversal begins from there again in direction of all-time highs in April, conserving the parabola intact. The third situation is that we proceed to fall from right here by means of $61k, kind one other lower-high beneath $65k after which break the parabola, closing beneath $58k – this extra bearish trajectory would result in an extended interval of consolidation and chop, with costs doubtlessly going as little as $48k earlier than marking out a backside in summer season after which starting a brand new parabola from there into value discovery and past. Actually, at current I’ve no certainty on any of those three, but when we begin to shut the each day beneath $64.9k and switch that degree into resistance intra-week, I’d count on the second situation to grow to be the probably, liquidating a bunch of keen longs that jumped in after that bullish engulfing. I feel the longer consolidation is definitely believable, however I’m presently leaning in direction of that being the least possible at current of the three. It’ll grow to be extra clear if we do get beneath $61k and see no actual response from bulls…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $3442 (0.05266 BTC)
Market Cap: $413.035bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see that value rejected at reclaimed resistance round $3950 after which closed final week simply above $3600, persevering with to dump this week beneath prior help at $3580 into $3034, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating round $3440. There’s completely nothing bearish about this construction on the weekly, with rising quantity and momentum with no indicators of exhaustion. At current, this seems to be like a regular pull-back following 6 weeks of rallying. In reality, we might pull again into $2721 and kind a higher-low there and it might nonetheless look fairly good on this timeframe. That mentioned, I don’t suppose the market goes to be type sufficient to present you $2700, however it illustrate the purpose of ETH’s structural energy right here. If we drop into the each day, I’ve marked out the 2 eventualities I’m right here, which might be decided by BTC I’d picture. The bearish situation which does grant you $2700 and a interval of consolidation and re-accumulation is probably going if BTC/USD does break the parabola and lose $58k. The sharper restoration is extra possible right here, in my opinion, and we now have already taken out that lengthy wick into $3284 and trapped breakdown shorts, in addition to liquidated lots of longs, so I’d be searching for the formation of a higher-low this week above $3284, following by continuation by means of $3580 subsequent week into contemporary yearly highs in early April, particularly given how ETH shrugged off the SEC headlines yesterday. Provided that we shut the each day beneath $3284 do I feel this v-recovery doesn’t happen.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that value offered off final week from the open into the shut proper above the 360wMA at 00.053 and this week discovered resistance at that weekly open, dumping into help at 0.051 and bouncing, now consolidating between the 2 ranges. While this doesn’t look fairly, it additionally doesn’t look ugly – it simply seems to be just like the worst chop of all time. Now we have one thing of a sweep of the newest swing-low into demand and value wanting prefer it desires to carry 0.051 right here. If it may’t, and we shut the weekly beneath 0.051, then it seems to be ugly, and we’ll possible want one other deep flush of 0.049 into 0.046 earlier than an actual backside kinds. If, nevertheless, help holds right here, then we’re simply ready for that weekly lose by means of the trendline and for it to then maintain as help the next week. Wanting on the each day, we will see that value broke beneath native trendline resistance this week on that dump into 0.051 and is now retesting 0.0533 as resistance. This would be the key check over the subsequent day or two: reject right here and switch decrease and I feel it’s unlikely 0.051 is holding once more, and we’ll see the pair 5% decrease from there; if, nevertheless, we will break and shut again above that degree, I feel we take one other stab at that trendline.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $178.18 (0.002726 BTC)
Market Cap: $79.248bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we will see from the weekly that value closed final week at contemporary yearly highs, simply shy of the September 2021 excessive at $213 and the 78.6% fib of the bear market. This week has seen a small pull-back off that space into the 61.8% fib at $170, with value wicking beneath it into $162 and discovering help. I might see this pulling again so far as $140 earlier than marking out a backside, if the remainder of the market is transferring decrease, and the pair would nonetheless look incredible. If we drop into the each day, we will see the parabolic advance from the December 2022 lows and the steepening of the rally this previous couple of weeks. Regardless of this, momentum indicators are exhibiting no indicators of exhaustion on the newest push greater into $212, and this presently simply seems to be like a textbook reset earlier than continuation greater. If we do take out $162, I’d count on lots of demand to step in above $144 and mark out a backside, from which the pair begins the leg into all-time highs. This might truly even consolidate for just a few weeks with out breaking that parabolic advance. So long as it holds, new all-time highs earlier than Could is probably.
Turning to SOL/BTC, we will see that value may be very tightly holding to its parabolic curve right here, pushing off help at 0.00207 final week into contemporary yearly highs, closing across the 61.8% fib of the bear market at 0.003. This week has seen a minor retracement off that degree, however nothing to recommend a break of the parabola simply but. We do have some indicators of potential exhaustion up right here, however nothing concrete at current: this might simply bounce subsequent week above 0.0026 and proceed greater into 0.00377 after that with the parabola intact. If it does maintain, we’re contemporary highs in summer season. Dropping into the each day, we will see that value swept the 0.0029 excessive and located resistance, with that degree now capping value. If we do see continuation decrease off this degree, I’d be searching for that prior resistance at 0.00244 to behave as help, main to a different breakout try past 0.003. Actually, nothing majorly bearish in any respect on this timeframe. Simply search for a higher-low formation and bid till the parabola breaks.
Fantom:
FTM/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
FTM/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $1.07 (1632 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.004bn
Ideas: Starting with FTM/USD, we will see on the weekly that the pair has been marching forwards this previous few weeks, rallying by means of the 200wMA and turning it into help at $0.55 earlier than breaking multi-year resistance at $0.64. This latter degree additionally grew to become help as value pushed greater, with this previous week seeing the pair rally by means of a cluster of resistance beneath $1 into $1.14, the place it did reject. So long as we will shut the weekly above $1, I’d count on continuation greater over the subsequent few weeks right here in direction of the 38.2% fib of the bear market and prior resistance between $1.51-1.66. Momentum indicators are additionally exhibiting no indicators of slowing down simply but. Dropping into the each day, we will see that there was some divergence on the previous few pushes into resistance, and in basic bull market trend these had been invalidated as value closed by means of $0.98 and turned it into help, marking out a higher-high on RSI. From right here, I’m anticipating to see some extra consolidation between $0.91-1.1.14 over the subsequent week or so earlier than one other leg greater into $1.50 in early April.
Turning to FTM/BTC, we will see that weekly construction is confirmed as bullish with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows because the October 2023 backside formation. The previous couple of weeks have seen the pair battle at 1309 satoshis, wicking into the 200wMA at 1422 satoshis however rejecting and shutting beneath that degree twice. This previous week value has lastly broke by means of the resistance cluster, rallying into the subsequent main resistance at 1730 satoshis, with momentum additionally pointing greater. From right here, so long as we shut the week above 1400 satoshis, I’d count on value to consolidate slightly after which run by means of 1900 satoshis into the 23.6% fib of the bear market and main help turned resistance round 2420 satoshis, which is the place I’d count on an area prime to start forming. Except we now shut again inside 1308, the pattern seems to be very sturdy. Dropping briefly into the each day, we will see how some consolidation right into a breakout would possibly look, however the primary factor to remove right here is that the 360dMA is now help and there are not any indicators of momentum exhaustion up right here. I’m a Fantom bull for the foreseeable future.
Illuvium:
ILV/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ILV/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Value: $130.03 (0.001989 BTC)
Market Cap: $822.166mn
Ideas: Starting with ILV/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has bottomed out and has shaped sturdy bullish construction, with the next excessive by means of $120 a few weeks in the past into $162. Value then consolidated and has since flipped $121 into help, which is holding at current. I’d now count on to see the subsequent leg greater start from right here by means of $162 into contemporary yearly highs,, with fairly actually no resistance between there and the 200% fib extension of the pattern round prior help at $240-260. Invalidation can be a weekly shut again beneath that $108 degree that had capped value for over a 12 months. Dropping into the each day, we will see how sturdy each day construction is right here and, while we did have some divergence on the newest push greater, I imagine this has performed out on the dump earlier this week. We should always now see a higher-low kind above $120 and value to proceed by means of from there in direction of $260 within the subsequent few weeks.
Turning to ILV/BTC, we will see that the pair has spent the majority of its existence in a downtrend, however following the all-time low formation at 0.00124 in October 2023, the pair rallied greater, reclaiming help at 0.0016 and turning weekly construction bullish. Value marked out an area greater at 0.0033, and has since retraced into 0.0016, which has held as reclaimed help for the very best a part of 2024. We at the moment are range-bound between that help and prior help turned resistance at 0.00224, and I’d count on upside decision of this vary given the weekly construction. If we get a weekly shut by means of 0.00224, that could be a very clear sign to purchase spot with invalidation at 0.0015, trying to maintain for a cycle, with a significant goal at 0.01.
LooksRare:
LOOKS/USD
Every day:
LOOKS/BTC
Every day:
Value: $0.131 (200 satoshis)
Market Cap: $130.877mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LooksRare look just about the identical given the relative lack of value historical past, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
LOOKS/USD, we will see how value has not too long ago rallied by means of the 200dMA and 360dMA that had been capping costs, with the latter by no means having been traded above prior besides a faux out in December 2023. We pushed greater and reclaimed help at $0.11 earlier than value discovered resistance at a yearly excessive round $0.187. Now we have since retraced into $0.11, which is presently holding as help, and the broader pattern is now pointing greater, with a collection of higher-highs and higher-lows, in addition to the beginnings of a parabolic advance. I’d count on to see the subsequent leg greater for LOOKS start from right here, taking the pair by means of $0.19 in direction of main resistance at $0.46, the place the two.618 extension of the present pattern can also be sat. The craziest factor, nevertheless, is how far off the highs we’re – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market doesn’t even become visible till $1.65, with the 38.2% fib at a very powerful prior help turned resistance round $2.60. That latter degree is the place I’m trying to maintain this to, given the truth that LOOKS has by no means traded a bull cycle. I’ll look to exit most of my place round that degree both late this 12 months or early subsequent and maintain slightly for a possible moon-shot at all-time highs. For the short-term, so long as we maintain above $0.09 this seems to be tremendous for greater costs…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. Again to full size subsequent week!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be at liberty to go away any feedback or questions beneath, or electronic mail me immediately at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.