Market Outlook #248 (third December 2023)
Howdy, and welcome to the 248th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I might be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Polygon, Oasis Community, Amp and Unibot.
As ever, if in case you have any requests for subsequent week, ship them throughout.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $39,449
Market Cap: $771.620bn
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we will see that worth is about to shut the week at contemporary yearly highs, in addition to highs of the week, on comparable quantity to the prior three weeks, having rallied off the open at $37.4k into assist turned resistance right here at $39.6k. This continues to look promising for larger costs, to be sincere – momentum nonetheless seems robust and we’ve simply closed via multi-week resistance. subsequent week, I might count on this squeeze to proceed into $42k, the place there’s more likely to be far more resistance given the confluence. If we do see worth push up into that degree, I might be seeking to hedge some spot publicity and look to take away the hedge after we settle for above that degree. For draw back threat, any wick up above $39.6k in direction of $42k and subsequent shut again inside $39.6k would start to appear like an area prime to me, from which level we will begin searching for shorts doubtlessly again so far as $33k to filter all of those current untapped lows. That is clearly assuming we do get that prime formation within the subsequent week or two beneath $42k. Invalidation on any quick publicity is clearly acceptance above $42k, however till we appear like a prime has shaped I might not rush to fade the primary weekly shut via multi-week consolidation.
Turning to the each day, we will see how momentum had reset and is now curling larger once more as worth has damaged via resistance at $38k and turned it into assist on this timeframe, which is tremendous promising for December price-action, for my part. If we will maintain above $38k early subsequent week, I might count on worth to only hold pushing up with no actual resistance between $39.6k and $42k. If, nevertheless, we deviate above $39.6k early subsequent week after which break and shut again inside $38k, that will appear like the $42k degree is getting front-run and I might turn into much more cautious about lengthy publicity. Not a lot else so as to add right here while construction seems like this…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $2,163 (0.0548 BTC)
Market Cap: $260.285bn
Ideas: If we start by ETH/USD, on the weekly we will see that worth rallied off resistance turned assist at $2037 – a degree which worth had beforehand been chopping round for weeks. From the weekly open, worth discovered assist at that degree and has rallied into new yearly highs at $2190, set to shut the week proper across the prior yearly highs at $2170. This seems very very like the start of a breakout from this long-term resistance degree for ETH, notably after we contemplate how $2037 additionally acted as very robust resistance in August 2022 and July 2023, with worth solely deviating above that when since Could 2022’s capitulation occasion. This robust push off that degree and break of contemporary yearly highs signifies a brand new vary enlargement, for my part, as I’ve been awaiting. If we will flip $2170 into assist subsequent week I feel we see ETH/USD push into $2426 later in December earlier than any additional resistance is discovered. Clearly, if we wick above $2190 subsequent week, making a contemporary yearly excessive, then reject and shut again inside $2170, that will look a bit of extra bearish and we might contemplate {that a} deviation has shaped. However till that occurs, this seems prepared for a brand new vary.
ETH/BTC, once more we proceed to consolidated above 0.0533 and beneath the 200wMA at 0.0557, however worth is about to shut proper round that resistance degree as soon as once more. As I discussed final week, while we’re on this tight vary, there’s little to do, however after we see worth both shut via 0.0533 and switch that assist into resistance or shut above 0.0557 and switch the 200wMA into assist, then we will take a look at play ETH for the foreseeable future. Within the former state of affairs, naturally we might look to hedge lengthy publicity or open quick publicity, in anticipation of draw back; within the latter, we expect to see the pair rally in direction of multi-year trendline resistance, due to this fact outperforming for a interval. Easy.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $63.45 (0.00161 BTC)
Market Cap: $26.953bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth is discovering assist above prior resistance at $53.60 and is discovering resistance at $62, marginally beneath the place the pair is about to shut this week. This vary has held for 3 weeks, with weekly momentum not but exhibiting any divergence, and while we proceed to carry above $53.60 I’m inclined to count on larger costs from this vary. If subsequent week see the pair flip this resistance into assist above $64, I feel we see one other leg larger into that vary between $75-82. If, nevertheless, we at any level shut the weekly beneath $53.60 within the subsequent couple of weeks, I might count on $48 to be retested beneath because the final degree of assist earlier than a a lot deeper pullback turns into doable in direction of $36. Dropping into the each day, we will see how momentum has reset now throughout this consolidation, and if we will begin pushing via $64 I might count on momentum to hold this ahead as soon as once more, with $68 as minor resistance earlier than $75 comes into play. The bearish state of affairs right here subsequent week can be a deviation above $68 adopted by rejection and a detailed again beneath $61; in that state of affairs, I might search for intraweek shorts in direction of $54, with a view to hedge down there and reopen on acceptance via that degree, with $48 then the last word goal for that quick. Beneath $48, you understand what occurs…
Turning to SOL/BTC, we will see how worth is consolidating above prior resistance at 0.00137 and the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Now we have resistance overhead at 0.00162, the place worth is at the moment sat, and any acceptance above this opens up continuation into the 38.2% degree at 0.00208, the place there’s additionally prior assist, for my part. So doubtlessly 15-20% extra upside from right here if this resistance provides approach. If we’re topping out right here, nevertheless, subsequent week ought to see worth shut again beneath 0.00137, making it extra possible we pull-back into that untested degree at 0.00112. If we drop into the each day, we will see how each day construction is popping bullish once more after the transient pullback however there’s resistance proper right here that’s proving troublesome. I feel so long as the pair continues to type these decrease timeframe higher-lows into this resistance we’re more likely to see it give approach and switch into reclaimed assist; from there, I feel we take out 0.0018 and squeeze into 0.002, the place there might be far more resistance.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $0.811 (2058 satoshis)
Market Cap: $7.547bn
Ideas: If we start by MATIC/USD, we will see from the weekly that worth has retraced off resistance at $1 into the 200wMA at $0.77 and located assist this previous week, rallying off that degree into $0.82, the place it’s set to shut. Weekly construction is bullish however that $1 space has an enormous quantity of confluence for resistance, and so it’s hardly shocking worth didn’t breach it on the primary try following this rally. What bulls needs to see right here is that the pair type a macro higher-low now above the reclaimed assist at $0.62 – even when we drop farther from right here into that degree weekly construction would nonetheless be intact if we type that higher-low in that space. From there, we might count on one other try at a $1 breakout, above which there’s little resistance into $1.30, the place we discover confluence of prior assist, the 38.2% retracement of the bear market and the 78.6% retracement of the 2023 downtrend. Dropping into the each day, we will see how worth is definitely forming some respectable construction right here above the 200dMA and above reclaimed assist at $0.74, with each day construction having turned bullish on this most up-to-date push larger. If this construction holds subsequent week and one other larger low varieties, I don’t suppose we see that deeper retracement earlier than one other try on the $1 breakout. Let’s see how the week unfolds…
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we will see that, following weekly construction turning bullish, worth rallied via the 200wMA into 2704 satoshis and rejected, closing again beneath that degree and retracing now into reclaimed assist at 2000 satoshis; a significant historic degree. If we will type a higher-low on this space, construction seems completely fantastic for continuation larger within the coming weeks. Nevertheless, shut again beneath 2000 satoshis and this rally feels a lot much less legitimate, with 1800 satoshi assist coming into view for a sweep. Maintain right here and I feel the following leg takes the pair in direction of 3200 satoshis for the hole fill. Turning to the each day, we will see how worth faked out above the 200dMA earlier than rejecting and retraced again inside that long-term worth space between 1900-2100 satoshis, and for now we’re seeing assist maintain right here. If we will now reclaim 2100 as assist, I might count on to see 2450 retested, with acceptance above that resulting in the following leg larger into 2950-3230.
Oasis Community:
ROSE/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ROSE/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $0.0849 (215 satoshis)
Market Cap: $428.513mn
Ideas: Starting with ROSE/USD, we will see that worth continued to rally larger this previous week, pushing past prior resistance at $0.08 into $0.088, with worth set to shut the week marginally beneath that degree. We’re trying on the pair inches away from a breakout past the 2023 highs, with any acceptance subsequent week above $0.088 opening up a brand new vary: above that degree, there’s zero resistance into $0.116 and I’m anticipating that vary to get crammed in swiftly, notably following a multi-week consolidation beneath resistance. Clearly, if we deviate above that prime subsequent week and begin breaking down and shutting again beneath it, the image seems a bit of totally different. For now, this very a lot seems prepared for continuation larger, with $0.18 the first goal past $0.116.
Turning to ROSE/BTC, we will see that worth is now above reclaimed assist at 203, with solely prior assist at 219 satoshis performing as resistance earlier than an enormous vary opens up, offering confluence for the Greenback pair. If we will shut the weekly firmly above 220 subsequent week, I might count on ROSE to push in direction of 280 satoshis in December, with acceptance via that degree opening up the primary main resistance degree at 420 – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market. Dropping into the each day, we will see how following that multi-week consolidation above the 200dMA, worth has flipped vary resistance at 203 into assist and is now holding that degree; shut again inside that and we’re more likely to return to 180 for a retest, however above it I feel we proceed rallying into 270-280 the place there’s far more resistance.
Amp:
AMP/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
AMP/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value: $0.0025 (6 satoshis)
Market Cap: $141.301mn
Ideas: If we start by AMP/USD, we will see that the pair not too long ago shaped an all-time low at $0.0014 and has since rallied again above assist at $0.0018, now consolidating beneath prior assist turned resistance at $0.003. While that is promising, notably when momentum indicators, weekly construction continues to be bearish and the pair continues to be very a lot in a downtrend, in the interim. If we now see a higher-low type above $0.0018 and worth then rally and settle for again above $0.03 – a key historic degree – then we will get thinking about a backside to be in and for additional upside to comply with. If that does happen, I might count on the pair to rally off that $0.003 degree as assist quickly in direction of $0.0055. If we see the pair reject this space, nevertheless, and $0.0018 doesn’t maintain, the downtrend persists and contemporary all-time lows are inevitable. Dropping briefly into the each day, we will see that worth is consolidating between the 360dMA as resistance and the 200dMA as assist, with the previous having capped the final main rally, so acceptance above $0.003 may also give us acceptance above a key MA, and a sustained reversal turns into a lot larger chance, for my part.
Turning to AMP/BTC, the pair has very a lot performed out a textbook market cycle, with volatility having utterly diminished and worth now consolidating in a good vary round all-time lows. If this can be a challenge you are feeling assured in basically (this can be a reader request, and due to this fact I can not touch upon fundamentals right here), this is able to be precisely the place I might be seeking to construct a spot place to be sincere, with a view so as to add above 16 satoshis. Trying on the each day, we’re tightly wound proper beneath the 200dMA additionally, with the 360dMA looming overhead above 10 satoshis; clear all of this and it turns into very seemingly the cyclical backside has shaped, so for these with much less threat urge for food, awaiting that will be clever.
Unibot:
UNIBOT/USD
Day by day:
Value: $62.97 (0.00159 BTC)
Market Cap: $63.399mn
Ideas: Lastly, let’s take a look at a challenge I’ve not too long ago purchased a spot place in: UNIBOT.
UNIBOT/USD, we will see the pair has solely been buying and selling for a couple of months and worth has performed out most of a market cycle at this level, having shaped an all-time excessive at $226 in August and since been trending decrease, capitulating into $27.77 in November however largely spending time in a variety between assist at $43 and resistance at $78. This vary has endured since mid-September and while worth tried a breakout a couple of days in the past, this failed and we are actually retesting $64 as assist; if this degree fails, I might count on $51 to be retested as assist, the place these on the sidelines might additionally look to construct a place with a weekly shut beneath $40 being my invalidation right here. I’m seeking to maintain this for a full cycle, anticipating contemporary highs via $226. Into 2024 we go…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or e mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.