In a current video by famend cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, ominous predictions for Bitcoin efficiency in September have emerged. Cowen, identified for his data-driven strategy to cryptocurrency evaluation, shared his insights relating to Bitcoin’s historic efficiency in September and its potential trajectory for the present 12 months.
Cowen acknowledged that September has historically been a difficult month for BTC, usually characterised by detrimental value actions. He emphasised that whereas historic tendencies counsel a crimson month for Bitcoin in September, there are not any ensures, and occasional inexperienced September does happen.
The analyst highlighted that Bitcoin had skilled six consecutive crimson September from 2017 to 2022. The typical return for Bitcoin in September has traditionally been round -6.6%, with an ordinary deviation that provides to the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency’s efficiency.
Analyzing Potential Worth Declines
Cowen then delved into the potential value decline for Bitcoin in September. Given Bitcoin’s opening value of just under $26,000 for the month, a 7% lower would convey its worth to roughly $24,000. He additional identified that within the pre-halving 12 months of 2019, Bitcoin witnessed a 14% drop in September, doubtlessly pushing its value right down to $22,000.
To bolster his argument, Cowen referred to a current tweet wherein he speculated a considerable probability of Bitcoin reaching $23,000 in September. Though he confused that this prediction is way from a assure, he underscored the seasonal sample, the downward momentum, and the current month-to-month shut under sure assist ranges as components that make a dip to $23,000 believable.
Furthermore, Cowen mentioned the typical returns in all pre-halving years for the month, revealing a drop of roughly 17.7%, which might end in Bitcoin buying and selling at round $21,500 if historical past repeats itself.
On August’s efficiency, Cowen famous that Bitcoin had already skilled a ten% drop. Whereas August’s long-term common is roughly 21%, averaging solely the final two pre-halving years (2015 and 2019) suggests a extra modest -11% to -12% common drop. This highlights that Bitcoin might comply with the same sample in September, doubtlessly softening the blow to round $24,000.
The present value of Bitcoin (BTC) is $25,813, with a 24-hour value change of -0.99%. Because the main cryptocurrency, Bitcoin instructions a big market cap of $502,654,681,515, securing its place because the primary cryptocurrency by market capitalization. Previously 24 hours, Bitcoin has skilled a buying and selling quantity of $17,603,174,408, making it the second most actively traded cryptocurrency by quantity. This excessive buying and selling quantity signifies robust curiosity and exercise throughout the Bitcoin market, contributing to its liquidity.
Navigating Bitcoin’s Cyclical Nature
Cowen emphasised that regardless of the uncertainty, the seasonality of Bitcoin and the present downward momentum make a take a look at of the $23,000 degree extremely seemingly within the close to future, presumably in September or October.
Cowen mirrored on the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s value actions in a broader context, stating that it usually alternates between bullish and bearish phases. He confused that in pre-halving years, Bitcoin tends to rise considerably through the first half and expertise declines within the latter half. In accordance with Cowen, this sample is designed to “wreck” each bulls and bears earlier than getting into a interval of sustained progress.
He additionally identified that whereas BTC might face challenges within the brief time period, as soon as quantitative easing (QE) returns and the cryptocurrency market sentiment improves, altcoins might regain momentum.
In conclusion, Cowen cautioned his viewers to stay vigilant in September, traditionally a month of crimson returns for Bitcoin. He urged warning, citing previous information and market dynamics as indicators of a doubtlessly difficult month forward. Whereas the longer term stays unsure, Cowen’s data-driven evaluation serves as a worthwhile useful resource for these navigating the turbulent waters of the cryptocurrency market. Buyers and fans will undoubtedly watch carefully to see if Bitcoin’s efficiency aligns along with his predictions within the coming weeks and months.
Featured picture from Pixabay and chart from TradingView.com